The Probability Engine for Indian Equity Markets

NIFTY 500 probability analysis for Week 17, 2026 (April 20, 2026): The market breadth ratio R stands at 0.56, placing it in the Q1 quintile — historically associated with a 40% probability of positive NIFTY returns over the next 22 trading days. The 21-day R slope is rising (+0.006), which our research identifies as a regime-change leading indicator with Spearman ρ = +0.39 correlation to 44-day forward returns. Capital Goods formally ignited on 2026-04-20, triggering the cascade alert: Financial Services, Healthcare, Info Technology, FMCG have historically followed with 71% probability within 10 trading days (based on 10 historical events with 100% follow rate). Construction Materials breadth at 60% (above the 60% early-cycle trigger). Chemicals breadth at 62% (above the 60% early-cycle trigger). Hot sectors this week: Metals & Mining, Power, Capital Goods, Healthcare. Cold sectors: Consumer Services. 30 stocks currently qualify for the F7 signal (TrueVX >90 with all moving averages in high zones), historically delivering +35.7% CAGR out-of-sample. The market's order parameter β is 0.47, within the normal structural range (mean β = 0.655 across 7.5 years); β > 1.2 is the crash-precursor threshold (COVID peak: 1.84). Structural bulls (mean_long >80): 14.8% of universe. Structural bears (mean_long <40): 26.4% of universe. Net breadth: -0.116.